By Michel Leidermann
Several University of Arkansas researchers, coordinated by the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS), presented the results of a special 240-page report, titled “Arkansas 2020” to state legislators last Tuesday, May 13, during a joint meeting of Senate committees on Children and Youth, and the Department of Aging, Children and Youth and Military Affairs.
The report was completed in January 2007, but its publication was delayed due to a schedule too full of the last legislative session.
The report revealed that as expected, demographic changes will put new demands on all aspects of the state: its infrastructure, education and social services, health care and public safety. There will be more "arkansonianos" senior citizens living in the state that year than at any time in its history.
It suggested that there is an increased need for bilingual staff to help with the recruitment and training of Latinos, many of whom are not proficient in English.
The report suggests that Arkansas has to prepare for the great demographic changes and its changing needs and expectations and their future impact on state services, before it is too late.
The state population is expected to rise to 3.58 million in 2020, compared to 2.83 million from 2007 and 2.67 million in 2000.
Between 2000 and 2020, the number of people between the ages of 60 and 69 years, is expected to grow 70% to 378,741, and the number of people between ages 70 and 79 years will grow by 38% to 233,597.
The number of Latinos in Arkansas is expected to nearly triple the 86,866 of 2000, to 240,404 in 2020, according to projections based on official Census numbers. If counting Latinos who did not participate in the Census, and based on these estimates, the number of Latinos could exceed 300 thousand that year.
The Arkansas 2020 report requested several Arkansas state agencies to identify the challenges that future demographic changes would bring, and now the next step is to develop a plan for how the state will be responsible for solving the problems cited in the report. Several state agencies surveyed, said they did not have the resources, personnel or technology to address, control or the planning to meet future needs.
The Arkansas Department of Health, anticipates an increasing emphasis on prevention and management of chronic diseases like diabetes, hypertension and obesity, a need for more resources to regulate
hospitals and nursing homes, and greater monitoring of certain infectious diseases, according to the report.
The Department of Human Services will have to fulfill the need for more services for children and the disabled, and more staff who speak Spanish.
The higher education system in Arkansas, expects to be heavily affected in the next 12 years, when more teachers, administrators and university officials reach the age of retirement.
More than 20 state agencies participated in the study, including the departments of Health, Human Services, Education, Correction, Roads and Transportation, Finance and Administration and the Office of the Attorney-General.
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